Despite the seismic shifts taking place in the industry and increasingly stringent emissions restrictions facing automakers and consumers, Houchois said demand for new vehicles is still strong and likely close to demand. pre-pandemic observed in 2018 and 2019.
European growth will be dampened by the shift to electrification, as automakers drop mini-cars and small vehicles from their lineups, Houchois said. These vehicles have already been hit hard by tougher emissions and safety regulations.
It’s hard to imagine a European car market reaching annual sales of 15 to 16 million units without combustion engine cars, Houchois said, especially when 2 million smaller car sales disappear.
On the other hand, the analyst said it is not inconceivable that the mini-car and small car segments could become a stable part of the shift to electric vehicles, if consumers are willing to accept more batteries. small which makes them more affordable.
And, if that happens, it’s not inevitable that cost will determine that these cars are largely made in China, he added.
If Dacia can make the Chinese-built Spring battery-electric small crossover a success in Europe thanks to its low cost, maybe others, including Stellantis, can do it, Houchois said.